Jun. 18 at 7:40 PM
$APH — 𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 — 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟴, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 🐺
Watching, not in. Amphenol bounced clean off VWAP + prior demand (143–154) and is now retesting the January ATH. Nice reclaim candle — but the trade isn't live until it proves the level.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀: a weekly close above ~166 (prior ATH 165.92 + the 1.0 fib at 166.71). Clear that, and there's no overhead supply left — blue-sky breakout. Targets stack at 192 → 222 → 261 on the measured move.
𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗜 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗽: AI/datacenter interconnect tailwind is real — 43–45% YoY revenue growth guided, Barclays at
$198, and falling 10Y yields just gave the whole hardware complex a lift.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗯𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝘄𝗼𝗻'𝘁 𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝘆𝗼𝘂: P/E ~44 vs a ~30 median. This is priced for perfection. That's fine for a momentum-continuation trade — breakouts run *because* they're expensive — but it means any miss gets punished fast. And insiders sold ~
$18.7M over three months. I'm not ignoring that; I'm noting it.
𝗨𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗹 𝟭𝟲𝟲 𝗯𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝘀, 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝗮 𝘀𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗽, 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗮 𝗯𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗼𝘂𝘁. A line under the ATH is a level; a confirmed close through it is a trade. I wait for price to prove it. Invalidation: close back under 154 and the reclaim failed.
Paper-only / watch. No position. NFA. 🌑
#wavervanir #volanx #breakout #semiconductors #quant
