Apr. 12 at 4:11 PM
$IGV Stepped into IGV w/a starter on Friday... short the May 22
$65 puts. Cost basis on assignment lands right at the
$64 level, which is where multi-year horizontal support has held twice before. I've watched this one from the sidelines for a while. The setup finally got interesting.
The tape:
– Down ~7% on the week, ~13% on the month, ~29% YTD
– Weekly RSI 30.5, daily RSI 30.1... both pinned at the oversold line
– Daily stochastics under 17, about as washed as this thing gets
– Price sitting roughly
$9 above the
$66 shelf that defined the 2022 and 2023 lows
– Daily downtrend still intact, no reversal signal yet... this is a "getting paid to wait at support" trade, not a bottom call
The thesis: AI disruption is real, and yes, some SaaS names will get hollowed out. But the reflex to throw the entire software complex overboard reminds me of the dot-com era calls that brick-and-mortar retail was finished. It wasn't. The powerhouses adapted and ended up bigger on the other side. IGV's top 10 is ~60% of the fund and reads like a list of companies that are going to be AI beneficiaries, not casualties -- Microsoft, Oracle, Palantir, Salesforce, Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Adobe, ServiceNow. These, IMO, are embedded, mission-critical, enterprise-glued-in names. They're not getting disintermediated by a chatbot.
Bear case I'm respecting: oversold can stay oversold, and if the
$66 shelf cracks, the next real support is materially lower and the put gets tested in size. Multiples across software are still not cheap by historical standards, and earnings revisions haven't fully caught up to the new capex/margin reality. I'm sized for assignment, not hoping to dodge it.
Plan: collect premium here, and if the tape gives me
$65, I'll happily own the basket and start layering into the individual standouts --
$CRWD ,
$PANW ,
$CRM among them -- over time. Look through the noise.
Just my read... not advice, do your own work before risking capital.
