Jan. 16 at 1:35 AM
$APP This week’s drop isn’t fundamentally justified, all flows based. Option dealers went gamma negative after it fell through
$650-640 on volume yesterday, so hedging flows smashed it down even more. All b/c it’s in the same “bucket” as
$CRM and
$ADBE for the long semis/short software trade, which expects AI to ruin their subscription based business models…
Only
$APP has a totally different performance based model USING AI improvements to drive profit growth; as its AXON model advances, already many leaps ahead of its only gaming competitor and expanding into e-commerce rapidly, it delivers better performance to advertisers, creating more and more exceptional FCF for shareholders.
Bottom line: it fundamentally should be in the AI beneficiary category getting bid higher w/ semis, but the systematic flows don’t differentiate it from other software. That presents a buying opportunity, though near term might still be rough b/c of that and the negative gamma regime.
