Jul. 9 at 5:56 PM
$POET $AAOI $COHR $LITE
Potential revenue POET. Reason to be bullish.
Analyst Forecasts
• Fiscal 2025 — Analysts expect revenue to grow from ~
$41K in 2024 to
$3.4–3.6 million, a staggering ~8,000% YoY increase .
• Fiscal 2026 — Consensus projects a jump to
$40–42 million, a ~1,000% increase ().
• Fiscal 2027 — Projections estimate
$100–105 million, representing ~150% YoY growth ().
Another source (Fintel) forecasts ~
$91 million for 2026, aligning well with the above .
📈 Company & Market-Based Insights
• POET estimates its served transceiver market expanding from
$4B in 2023 to
$7B by 2027, with packaged light sources emerging at over
$5B by 2027 ().
• Through the Super Photonics JV, POET anticipates ~1 million optical engines/year capacity, translating to potentially hundreds of millions in sales when fully ramped .
⸻
💬 Community Projections & Use‑Case Scenarios
• A 2022 presentation hinted at JV revenue scaling to
$70–120M by end-2025, plus additional AI/optical compute contracts (~
$100M), totaling
$170–220M by 2025 .
• Reddit users project
$4M in 2025 sales, rising to
$33M in 2026 and
$100M by 2027 .
• A specific use case with Celestial AI: 3.2 million “Starlight” units at ~
$500 each, potentially
$1.6B revenue —though this is speculative and optimistic.
Outlook
• Optimistic Base Case: ~
$40M–
$100M in revenue by 2026–2027, driven by design wins with Foxconn, Luxshare, Mitsubishi, Celestial AI, and others.
• High-End / Bull Case: With full-scale production (~1M engines/year) and key hyperscaler contracts, revenue could exceed
$500M+ annually longer-term.
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✅ Key Factors to Monitor
1. Q2–Q3 2025 revenue — will it align with the ~
$3–4M forecast range?
2. Volume production orders — especially from Foxconn, Mitsubishi, Celestial AI.
3. Manufacturing ramp-up — Malaysia and Globetronics facilities scaling toward 1M units/year.
4. Pricing trends — optical engine ASPs (~
$500–
$1,400+ depending on module type).
⸻
Bottom line: Analysts see revenue climbing from a few million in 2025 to
$40M–
$100M by 2027—a massive ramp reflective of POET entering volume production. If the company secures large-scale deployment with AI/data-center players, it’s not beyond reach to exceed those figures, but such outcomes remain speculative at this stage
Always remember: any kind of investment always carry some risk.
