Dec. 29 at 7:32 PM
$JKS Bear Case: The "Silver Trap"
Tech Trap: Their move to TOPCon was efficient for power but fatal for costs—it requires 50% more silver paste than older tech.
The "Fake" Recovery: Q3 margins hit 7% (up from 2.9%), but only because Polysilicon crashed to ~
$5/kg (production cost floor). That tailwind is dead.
The Hidden Drag: At the Q3 earnings call (Nov '25), Silver was ~
$45. It is now
$70+.
Margin Wipeout: Silver paste has doubled to ~20% of total panel cost. With Poly prices bottomed out, the Silver spike from
$45 to
$70+ will likely flip margins from +7% to 0% or negative. The market is pricing a recovery; the math dictates a collapse.
The
$FSLR Hedge:
Zero Silver Risk: First Solar’s CdTe tech uses 0mg of silver/watt.
$JKS TOPCon uses ~13mg/watt.
Pricing Power: While silicon-based rivals drown in rising costs,
$FSLR maintains huge gross margins and true pricing power.
Supply Glut: Massive US capacity is coming online to dodge
tariffs, worsening the existing oversupply = no pricing power.
