ABTrades1
Oct 17, 7:30 PM
$TOYO at
$4 is frustrating, but I keep reminding myself:
Profitable with about
$80M net income in the last 12 months at a 32% gross margin,
$103M cash,
$210M equity, market cap
$170M. Trading below book, around 2x earnings.
Solar is down from May highs:
$TAN -43%,
$FSLR -44%,
$CSIQ -52%,
$JKS -66%. TOYO got dragged down with it.
The CBP hold is a UFLPA review over where the polysilicon came from. The company says it's non-Chinese and gave CBP the full chain. It's now applying for CTPAT trusted-trader status.
On the Ethiopia case, Commerce ruled in 2023 that cells on non-Chinese wafers don't circumvent. TOYO uses Indonesian wafers and wants the same treatment.
Section 232 rewards US polysilicon and US factories. TOYO is 70% US poly, building in Texas, and in term sheet talks with Commerce. The India, Indonesia and Laos tariffs hit competitors.
Short interest 29% of float, 11 days to cover. Squeeze fuel.
The last four solar bear markets ended with a 70% to 5x rebound.
All in.
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