Jul. 10 at 10:26 PM
Next week crux
Next week is a macro inflection point: Q2 earnings season starts with major bank reports, June CPI inflation data drops Tuesday (consensus 3.8% YoY, down from 4.2%), and U.S.-Iran hostilities resume with oil jumping 6-7% (Brent to
$77, WTI to
$72). The core issue is conflicting signals — earnings growth supports equities, but energy price pressure could force the Fed to stay hawkish longer, crimping multiples. Semiconductor stocks (
$TSM,
$AMAT,
$NVDA) face near-term headwind from geopolitical risk, while financials rally if capital markets stay hot. The outcome hinges on whether inflation data shows pricing sticks (bearish for equities) or passes through (bullish for equities). Market is hedging both scenarios.
via - StrikeWright