Jun. 10 at 5:23 PM
UBS f/casts semiconductor industry sell-in to hit
$1.62T in FY26, up +118% y/y, before climbing a further +46% to
$2.38T in FY27 as agentic AI drives broad-based demand across memory, logic, & CPU segments
Memory semiconductors are expected to lead the charge, w/ revs f/cast at
$961B in FY26, up +318% y/y, rising to
$1.638T in FY27. UBS attributed much of the momentum to agentic AI, which UBS said is "boosting not only HBM but also DDR5/LPDDR5 & NAND flash demand"
CPU revs are also f/cast to grow strongly, reaching
$75B in FY26 &
$96B in FY27, despite what UBS described as a sluggish PC market
UBS acknowledged that y/y growth rates will inevitably decelerate from elevated levels & said other cycle indicators "remain in the green," including foundry utilization rates, assembly equipment revs, & memory industry operating profits, all pointing upward into late FY27
UBS added that upside risk from AI, extending beyond accelerators & HBM into CPU, DRAM, NAND, networking, & power magmt, "could continue to push out the inflexion point in the cycle"
On stock positioning, UBS favors wafer fab equipment stocks & AI logic semiconductors & is "less sanguine on Analog"
$AMAT $ASML $MU $TSM $DRAM