Jan. 15 at 11:40 PM
US–Taiwan announced a trade pact that cuts tariffs on Taiwanese goods to 15% (from 20%), and pairs it with a massive “build-in-America” push:
$250B+ in direct investment plus
$250B in credit guarantees aimed at expanding US semiconductor capacity (with TSMC expected to be a central actor).
The structure matters: lower tariff friction now, bigger US capex over time—and it effectively formalizes the onshoring flywheel rather than “one-off” fab headlines.
Tickers:
$TSM,
$AMAT,
$LRCX
Our view is this is more bullish for US semi-capex enablers than for semiconductor margins: the clean path is TSMC US buildout → tool WFE demand → multi-year equipment/services backlog. If the “four more Arizona plants” trajectory gets confirmed in filings/guidance, dips in the capex complex look buyable, because the order math (tools + installs + packaging) is the real payoff—tariffs are just the forcing function.
