Jun. 23 at 3:35 PM
BoA: AI is set to compress into five years what took the chip industry half a century to achieve - identifies 5 key forces they believe will drive the next
$1T in semiconductor sales
"The chip industry took ~50 years to generate its first
$1T in sales. We expect AI to help add another
$1T in just the next 5 years."
The bank’s 5 themes are:
1) AI data center systems, whose TAM it sees growing to roughly
$1.7T by 2030 from
$273B in 2025
2) Memory strength & durability underpinned by long-term supply agreements
3) Semiconductor capital equip't & reshoring benefiting from rising chip complexity
4) Analog chips gaining from surging AI power requirements
5) Agentic CPU demand, represents a
$170B server opportunity across x86 & ARM architectures.
Alongside the thematic update, BofA raised its total semiconductor industry forecast to
$2.7T by 2030, implying a +28% CAGR from 2025, up from a prior est of
$2.3T. The analysts see memory as the dominant, w/ BoA projecting nearly +300% y/y growth in 2026 alone.
The bank also materially lifted its wafer fab equipment (WFE) f/casts, now seeing spending reach
$250B by 2028, up from a prior est of
$203B & potentially hitting
$292B by 2030
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