Feb. 4 at 3:35 PM
$PRPL
PRPL recap: 2025 guide is
$465–485M revenue and
$0–10M Adj EBITDA. Through Q1–Q3 they did about
$328M revenue and about -
$6.9M Adj EBITDA, so Q4 needs a real step-up. New tailwinds: Purple Renew is now in all U.S. Costco warehouses (about 450), and they’re ramping Instagram/influencer marketing through their partnership program.
Biggest lever is still the Mattress Firm ramp: slots rising about 5k → 12k (about 2.4x floor space), with management pointing to at least
$70M incremental annual revenue starting 2026.
My two outputs (using a 59x P/E anchor similar to
$SGI ):
• End of 2026 base: about
$30M net profit → about
$0.28 EPS (108M shares) → about
$16/share
• End of 2028 upside: if international expansion works, about
$80M net → about
$0.74 EPS → about
$44/share
