Jun. 18 at 1:08 PM
$MAT now with the sub
$14 floor, guessing the activist pressure on management will hit a boiling point. This price action will undoubtedly dominate the upcoming July earnings and board review. I definitely prefer Mattel remains public knowing the future and knowing this low is artificially built, you do have to consider the structural dynamics at play here: Southeastern's Leverage: At a sub-9x trailing P/E, the valuation is completely decoupled from core brand power. The Valuation Margin: A standard 40% acquisition premium puts a buyout target around
$19.00 –
$22.00 per share—an incredibly cheap entry point for a major media conglomerate.If a strategic buyout does materialize, who is your top pick to acquire? I am leaning toward
$AMZN or
$DIS. Disney is a fascinating hypothetical: they could bring toy manufacturing entirely in-house, absorb premium IP (Barbie, MOTU, Hot Wheels), and use the high-margin cash flow to offset their legacy linear media drag. Are you adding heavily here?
