Oct. 24 at 1:33 AM
$UNH
If options are any indication implied 1day earnings move = 5.84% (as of tonight), so from here
$360 its either 381 or 338 (all else equal)
Options positioning for the Oct 31 expiry shows that 5 of the top 6 listed contracts by open interest are PUTS (screenshot 1) and even more important implied volatility to the DOWNSIDE (80% strike) is more expensive that to the upside (120% strike) (screenshot 2), google "volatility skew" to learn more
For a trade, the Oct 31
$340 PUT is around
$4.75, with an implied vol of 58% and a delta of 25, either as a partial hedge(if you are bullish) or a speculative short (if you are bearish)
I know it seems like ages ago but on 7/28 (right before earnings) the stock was sitting at
$282 with market expecting reinstated guidance of
$18+ (instead we got
$16+)... today we are
$80 higher, thats 4.5 more turns in p/e ratio, after
$ELV and
$MOH i am leaning bearish and looking to position that way.. if i burn premium, so be it.
Good luck bulls
