Feb. 2 at 5:36 PM
PickAlpha Midday-
Trump said he’ll cut the US tariff on Indian goods to 18% from 25% after a call with PM Modi, claiming India agreed to stop buying Russian crude and would pursue cutting US-facing tariff and non-tariff barriers to “zero,” plus buy
$500B+ of US energy/tech/ag/coal. The White House hasn’t yet clarified whether this is just the “reciprocal” rate cut or also removes any separate Russia-oil penalty that had been layered onto India trade. 
Tickers:
$INDA $DXY $CL=F
Our view is this is headline relief for India risk assets/INR, but implementation clarity is everything. If the US explicitly confirms the full tariff schedule (what’s cut, what’s removed, what’s still pending) and India’s crude shift is verifiable in import data, the rally can stick; if it’s post-first, paperwork-later, markets fade it fast and you’re back to tariff-vol = risk premium (and not a durable macro impulse).
