Jul. 13 at 9:20 PM
$ASML kicks off semis earnings season tomorrow, Jul 15 — first big chip name to report, with
$TSM following just one day later. As the monopoly EUV supplier, its bookings and outlook are the earliest read on AI chip capex, setting the tone for TSMC and every semicap after.
What our data shows going into the print:
📉 Down 5.0% over the past month
📊 Avg earnings-day move: ±6.8%
⚠️ Up on only 4 of its last 12 prints — avg earnings-day return −4.2%, incl. −7.9% at last year's July report
🔄 But the pre-event trend has reversed on print day in 11 of 12 events — weakness into the report hasn't meant weakness on it
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