Feb. 26 at 8:57 PM
$CRML
After long discussion with grok
the published revenues 27B
$ARE far too low compared to what the standard calculation would yield: ore grade × recovery × oxide price × gross ore tonnage.
• Your earlier calculation 103B$ for eudialyte is consistent with this logic → the PEA appears to have a systemic error (base tonnage = concentrate instead of ore, or confusion in units/grade application).
Consequences
• The PEA s key economic metrics (NPV ~US
$2.7-3.6B before taxes, IRR ~180%,are based on these underestimated revenues → the project is potentially much more valuable if corrected (your upside estimate of ~
$18B NPV / ~
$85/share CRML is plausible in a corrected scenario + by-products like Ta/Ga/Hf included + lower discount rate).
• This looks like a serious modeling error (not uncommon in PEAs/scoping studies with ±50% accuracy), potentially due to confusion between ROM vs. concentrated tonnage, or a spreadsheet bug (artificial grade ² or ×10 to "adjust").
