May. 1 at 7:21 PM
$ARE I ran a monte carlo probability distribution and it's essentially 8:1 odds that this will go to ~
$65 vs ~
$35 the question is just when in the next couple months or even year. This is the kind of thing that any hedge fund in this space would flag immediately. Price is essentially anchored around
$35 meaning it very likely won't go lower since it's the level that is fundamentally supported by dividend yield floor, and even the P/FFO ratio which fundamentally can't justify any lower multiple, as well as P/B floor. On the upside the ceiling that is pulling the price up is around
$90 based on NAV, previous conservative P/FFO ratios and P/B ratios.
Hedge funds that are buying in at this point are in a good position, they've been accumulating at 39-44 level for weeks now. Might trade in this range for a while I'm sure they're in no rush to shoot this back up when they can quietly just buy at these levels at wait for the inevitable sentiment reversal whenever a catalyst comes.
