Feb. 10 at 8:41 PM
$HOOD Flow Thesis — Earnings Today After Close
2,738 trades,
$263M total premium. Here's what the money is saying:
The picture is SPLIT — not clearly directional:
The headline P/C ratio (0.47) screams bullish, but dig deeper and it's murkier. Directional bias is 46% bull vs 47% bear — essentially a coin flip. Aggression is only 44% at-ask, meaning more passive/hedging flow than aggressive buying. This is two-way positioning, not conviction.
Key reads:
Bullish signals:
$31M net call premium over puts. Heaviest call strike at
$100 (15% upside target). 45 trades on
$120 Apr calls (
$6.6M premium) — these are 38% OTM lottery tickets. Someone is betting on an earnings blowout driving a sustained move. Also, the
$100 Feb 20 calls saw 900-lot blocks — that's institutional sizing.
Bearish signals: Heaviest put strike at
$75 (~10% downside).
$92M in whale puts vs
$92.8M whale calls — dead even at the big-money level. Call Bid execution (bearish — selling calls) is the single largest execution category at
$74M. That's covered call writing or outright selling.
The translation: Institutions are hedged to the teeth. The large block activity (
$162M in blocks vs
$101M sweeps) confirms this is positioning, not speculation. They're building two-sided structures — likely straddles, strangles, and iron condors centered around the
$80-
$95 range.
Expected move: ±9.1% (
$75.74 —
$90.83). Weekly ATM IV at 112% is elevated — the market is pricing a big move but not directionally committed.
For your account: This is NOT a flow-confirmed directional trade. It's a volatility event. If you're playing this, the flow says sell premium (the OptionsWhale iron condor thesis from your VolanXTwit mockup is actually the right read). If you must go directional, the
$120 Apr call activity is the only asymmetric signal — but that's a post-earnings continuation bet, not a tonight play.
