May. 5 at 1:00 AM
Just 0.1% of Polymarket accounts (roughly 2,000 of the 1.6M analyzed) took home 67% of all profits since November 2022, netting nearly
$500M.
The winners are algo-driven traders — often teams of professionals — paying big bucks for premium data feeds & firing off tens of thousands of trades a day using software.
One former pro poker player told the Journal he places 60 trades a minute on Kalshi. His take on casual bettors? They "have no chance. Systematically."
There are 2.9 unprofitable users for each profitable one based on data from the past month
Nevertheless, people are still piling into this platform: trading volume across both Polymarket & Kalshi hit
$24.2B in April, up from
$1.8B a year earlier.
Proponents say the markets don’t count as gambling, and that they harness the wisdom of crowds to accurately predict future events. Federal Reserve research shows Kalshi is an effective tool to forecast economic trends
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