May. 11 at 3:40 PM
Black Box Intelligence: Once gas prices hit a certain level, restaurant traffic has historically declined in the US
More specifically, when gas prices have exceeded
$3.50, traffic declines by -2.4% on avg & when the price exceeds
$3.80, traffic drops -2.9%
Family dining chains in particular lose customers when gas prices rise, followed by casual dining chains. Conversely, fast-casual chains typically realize the biggest traffic jump, as more lower- and middle-income consumers focus on value meals, which results in continued spending but at lower price point
Upscale restaurants, which have benefited from trends playing out across the US’s K-shaped economy in 2026, are largely insulated from the impact of higher gas price
Across the restaurant industry, traffic fell -2.3% y/y in March
March Gasoline price:
$3.73 [up +13.31% y/y]
Current AAA US gasoline price:
$4.520 [up +44.18% y/y]
$PBJ $XLY $MCD $CMG $DPZ