Jun. 26 at 9:20 PM
Scenarios and assumptions (condensed outlook)
FY2027
• Athena flywheel begins scaling, driving ARPU expansion and multi-product adoption
• Marigold likely not flat — assumed +8%+ growth
•
$PLTR partnership begins contributing (~
$100M/yr baseline)
• Net margin expands toward ~2%
• Dilution slows toward ~1.5%
• No political revenue assumed
FY2028
• U.S. election year drives potential political revenue boost (~
$50M+)
• Athena upsell cycle accelerates (3–5 use cases per customer)
• Palantir + Athena synergy ramps meaningfully
• Net margin ~4%
• Increased FCF enables buybacks, dilution impact reduced
FY2029
• Temporary growth moderation expected (~21.5% YoY)
• No election tailwind year
• Athena + Palantir tailwinds begin to mature
• New BI / analytics product cycle starts building next growth leg
• Net margin ~6%
• ~1% share reduction via buybacks
FY2030
• Midterm election year → potential record political revenue (~
$70M assumption)
• Core growth stabilizes around ~20%
• Marigold growth peaks ~12%
• Palantir-related revenue growth moderates (~30%)
• Net margin ~8%
• Further ~1% dilution reduction via buybacks
Key takeaway: earlier years are higher confidence; long-dated projections become increasingly uncertain.
