Nov. 28 at 4:14 PM
$CAAP : why I closed the position after a 52% gain 👇
I like airport businesses and CAAP did what I wanted it to do. Traffic recovered, revenues moved above pre-COVID, margins improved and the stock rerated. That was the thesis when I bought it as an Argentina recovery play.
Now the risk reward looks very different. Argentina is still more than half of CAAP’s cash flow and the macro remains wild. High inflation, FX risk and the constant chance of new rules or price caps all hang over the story.
On top of that, CAAP’s quality trails peers. Mexican operators like
$OMAB ,
$PAC and
$ASR run EBITDA margins in the 50–60% range and much higher ROIC. CAAP is closer to the mid 30s on margins and ~5% ROIC, with more employees per dollar of revenue.
The multiple has also moved up. CAAP now trades near the top of its historical EV/EBITDA range, so the “cheap Argentina airport” angle is mostly gone.
Good asset. Solid run. At today’s price I prefer to take the win.
