Dec. 3 at 7:29 AM
$SMCI $SMCI $36B Revenue Guidance Valuation Breakdown
(Smci looking like the dip buy of the year here)
Even the worst case scenario puts this over 60$ a share
SMCI management floated near-term annual revenue potential =
$36B from AI/server capacity + TAM capture.
Net margin assumptions (historic → expanding):
• Historic: 6–8%
• Recent: 8–10%
• Scale + liquid cooling: 10–15%
Earnings Scenarios
Bear (8% margin)
$36B × 8% =
$2.88B earnings
Base (10% margin)
$36B × 10% =
$3.60B earnings
Bull (12.5% margin)
$36B × 12.5% =
$4.50B earnings
⸻
Market Cap Targets (AI infra comps 20–35× earnings)
• Bear:
$2.88B × 20× =
$58B cap (+195% vs today)
• Base:
$3.60B × 25× =
$90B cap (+360%)
• Bull:
$4.50B × 35× =
$158B cap (+705%)
Market Cap Targets (AI infra comps 20–35× earnings)
• Bear:
$2.88B × 20× =
$58B cap (+195% vs today)
• Base:
$3.60B × 25× =
$90B cap (+360%)
• Bull:
$4.50B × 35× =
$158B cap (+705%)
⸻
Price Per Share (≈ 550M diluted shares)
•
$58B →
$105/share
•
$90B →
$163/share
•
$158B →
$287/share
Current Reality
SMCI market cap ≈
$19.6B
At
$36B revenue, SMCI is trading at just ~0.5× sales, which is:
• Cheap for traditional OEMs
• DIRT CHEAP for AI infrastructure growth
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