Jul. 25 at 4:45 PM
$GOOGL This chart is absolute madness.
$GOOG spent two decades generating an ocean of positive free cash flow, and the AI capex curve just wiped out a full Q of it in one shot.
Q2 FCF: -
$5.9B
Q2 CapEx:
$44.9B (record high, more than doubled YoY)
Op cash flow:
$39.1B... the core biz is still a cash machine, capex just outran it
When hyperscalers are running
$200B+/yr in infrastructure spend, staying #1 isn't funded by operating float anymore. Alphabet raised
$49.6B in equity and
$20.3B in debt this Q alone to keep pace. The cost of the AI arms race is now showing up on the bal sheet, not just the P&L.
TTM FCF is still +
$53.3B and they're sitting on
$242.5B in cash... so this isn't distress, it's a structural bet. And guidance says it gets bigger: FY26 capex just got raised to
$195-205B, with 2027 flagged to step up "significantly" further.
Strap in y'all, b/c the real variable isn't whether AI monetizes... it's whether it monetizes before Wall Street's patience expires. Get the timing wrong here... and you've got the largest companies alive massively overextended on a bet with no visibility past the next few years.
$SPY $QQQ $MAGS
