Jun. 25 at 10:14 PM
Based on estimates from Aterio, which tracks company announcements, utility filings, building permits & satellite data,
$AMZN is expected to add the most data center & power capacity in the US thru 2030.
But
$GOOGL is expected to add capacity at the fastest rate. In fact, including leased capacity from third-party data center owners, Google will have significantly closed its gap w/ Amazon by 2030
Given the constraints on the existing grid & the supply chain, hyperscalers have to pick their priorities: speed, cost, reliability or environmental impact. Thus far, Amazonâs strategy seems to emphasize cost and reliability, while Google appears focused on clean energy
Aterio: Amazon has a âreally good understanding of building capacityâ & has a methodical approach to it. Scale & experience come w/ longstanding relationships w/ utilities & suppliers of scarce power equipment. It was earlier than peers on certain energy opportunities, announcing the first power purchase agreement w/ an existing nuclear power plant
Amazon plans to build out most of its own capacity, while Google is expected to rely more heavily on leases. Based on Aterioâs data, about a quarter of Googleâs expected data center capacity in 2030 is expected to come from leases. Self-built can take longer but is the cheaper option over the long term
Cloud Backlog:
Microsoft:
$627B (46% from OpenAI & 5% from Anthropic)
Google:
$462B (43% from Anthropic)
Amazon:
$464B (15%-20% from OpenAI & 31%-35% from Anthropic)