Dec. 9 at 7:58 PM
Morgan Stanley: F/casts that in 2032,
$GOOGL Waymo &
$TSLA to command about 70% (~38% & ~29%, respectively) of autonomous miles driven in the US.
Additionally, believes autonomous miles will represent about 30% of all ride-share miles in the US.
$UBER &
$LYFT will capture just about 30% of all AV trips, down from basically controlling the entire ride-share market now
As these companies scale their autonomous efforts & improve their tech, costs are widely expected to decline.
Believes cost per mile for Waymo, which is currently nearly double Tesla’s cost, will drop from
$1.43 to
$0.99 by 2028. Meanwhile, the cost per mile for Tesla ride-sharing will dip below the cost of car ownership, which is growing.
Much of the future of ride-sharing hinges on whether or not robotaxis create more demand or take from current demand.
