Aug. 9 at 7:14 PM
This Big Tech cash-flow shift is something I’m watching closely.
$AMZN $GOOGL $META
Alphabet, Meta and Amazon are estimated to swing to roughly -
$32.2B of combined FCF in 2026, versus about +
$130B in 2024. The biggest drag is Amazon at around -
$24.4B, with Meta and Alphabet also moving negative.
The obvious reason is AI capex.
These companies are spending aggressively on data centers, chips and infrastructure, and the investment is arriving faster than the cash returns.
What matters to me isn’t the spending itself it’s whether the AI revenue eventually catches up. If returns disappoint, that capex could start weighing heavily on margins, cash flow and balance sheets.
I’m not bearish on Big Tech, but I think investors need to watch the cash burn more closely than before.
Strong conviction takes time. I’m staying focused on quality setups and preparing for the next opportunity.