May. 11 at 5:46 PM
$GOOGL The war needs to last 4-5 months more in order to start damaging GOOGL earnings through the raw material & recession channels.
Channels (in order of decreasing importance):
1. Companies & Retail Spending - This is the biggest and most imminent risk to Google, not Helium or energy. The risk is simple, people have less money, so do companies, they spend less, and Google's ad & search divisions as well as some others suffer.
2. Energy costs - These will rise a bit, but the CapEx is enormous enough to absorb the rising costs without a whimper.
3. Helium/Raw material shortage - Helium, Copper, Steel, etc. - Helium reserves with TSMC are estimated to be up to 2-3 months. Only beyond 3 months will the problem compound, even though the price will rise, but can be easily passed downstream because of TSM's monopoly.
So while there is expected to be a very slight earnings hit in the next quarter earnings, the real hit might come in the quarter after that - but even that isn't very big.
