Jun. 4 at 6:25 PM
$GOOGL — still sitting in a neutral zone after the pullback. Not broken, not breaking out—just resetting expectations.
If you assume:
Revenue growth re-accelerates into the mid-20% range over the next few years
CapEx gradually normalizes to single-digit % of revenue after year 5
Even then, DCF still lands around “fair value” today—not screaming cheap, not stretched either.
The real hinge is simple: either growth re-accelerates and CapEx discipline improves, or the valuation stays capped here.
Risk case is just as clear—if growth doesn’t re-accelerate meaningfully, or CapEx stays elevated longer than expected, returns get compressed fast.
So it’s less about narrative, more about execution now. Are you treating this as accumulation, or waiting for clearer confirmation?
