Sep. 2 at 8:13 PM
Goldman Sachs expects major U.S. banks to moderate capital deployment as regulatory buffers rise for a third consecutive year and excess capital levels decline.
Analyst Richard Ramsden said banks are likely to pull back as excess capital falls, G-SIB scores have increased in 2024, 2025 and so far in 2026, and final details of regulatory capital reforms remain pending. Five of the seven U.S. global systemically important banks have moved up at least one G-SIB bucket this year, with JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo posting the largest increases. Goldman does not expect any of the five largest banks to reduce their scores enough to move down a bucket by year-end.
The seven banks currently have an estimated
$78 billion of excess capital, but Goldman expects that figure to fall to
$55 billion in 2027 and
$20 billion in 2028 as higher G-SIB buffers take effect. By 2029, excess capital could turn into a
$21 billion shortfall.
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