Mar. 26 at 1:32 PM
$IBKR: The world’s most efficient broker. And I wouldn’t buy it at
$65.
The numbers are textbook perfection:
79% pre-tax margin — operational efficiency at scale
24% EPS CAGR — compounding that’s hard to replicate
3.3M accounts growing 32%/yr — customer acquisition still accelerating
But the market already priced in the perfection:
29x earnings. For a broker, that’s not a valuation — it’s a statement of faith.
The problem?
No margin of safety. 29x assumes margins stay peak, growth never slows, and competition stays asleep. Gravity eventually applies to every business.
7 charts. 10 years of data. One verdict:
$IBKR is one of the most disciplined operators out there. But buying a great company at a perfect price leaves you exposed to multiple compression, not fundamental risk.
At
$65, I’m not a buyer. Not because it’s a bad business — but because the price already reflects everything going right.
