Oct. 4 at 9:03 PM
$UBER model scales on multiple sides: ~20–25% cut of rides, 15–30% from Eats/grocery, plus delivery fees. Ads are at a ~
$1.5B run-rate, >30% YoY, nearly pure margin subsidizing rides/food. Uber One’s ~30M members spend 2–3x more, boosting frequency. Strong FCF supports a
$20B buyback on top of
$7B prior. The swing factor is autonomy:
$300M+ into Lucid/Nuro, targeting 20k AVs by late 2026. With drivers ~40–50% of ride costs, AVs reset per-unit economics below DoorDash. AI routing/batching amplifies efficiency. Risk = AV delays; upside = structurally superior margins.