Dec. 23 at 2:09 PM
$SNDX &
$DAWN are both commercial-stage oncology focused bios. Their FDA approved medicines target different cancers. Last week DAWN surged 20%+ over 2 days after trading patterns suggested DAWN may, again may, be in active M&A negotiations. This is not investment advice. We have no idea what will happen to the share price of either bio in FY2026.
It is interesting to see how the DAWN speculation manifests in call option trading. DAWN has recently traded for around
$10 a share while SNDX just over
$20.
If you were to buy 1/16/26 calls with strike prices 50% higher than recent averages (
$15 for DAWN &
$30 for SNDX), and the bio was acquired for 33% more than the call option strike price (DAWN for
$20/share & SNDX for
$40), the DAWN return would be 525% or 5.25 to 1 where the return for SNDX would be 7,600% or 76 to 1.
We're only sharing observations. 85% of stock options expire worthless
$XBI $IBB $NBI
