Feb. 21 at 4:04 PM
$DAWN appears the textbook example of the futility of commercial-stage bios "going it alone" versus exiting via M&A to maximize shareholder value.
DAWN's Ojemda is patented through June 23, 2035 after which time it is probable Ojemda's list price, and hence revenues to support DAWN's business, will fall 85% consistent with peer cancer therapies. For example, CTIC management projected Vonjo revenues to fall 83% the year after Vonjo's patent expiration.
The graph documents cumulative DAWN/Ojemda analyst consensus revenue estimates by year through 12/31/34 (when DAWN will have 6 months patent protection remaining). It is visually obvious the odds are DAWN's valuation, absent a patent extension, will otherwise decrease year after year like other peer 1 product companies
$PBYI &
$KPTI
Of course DAWN could beat the odds. Otherwise, based on the graph, is there reason to believe Ojemda will be more valuable @ 12/31/29 when it has 5 years patent life remaining?
$XBI $IBB
