Jan. 14 at 5:24 PM
It appears
$APLS is going to do just under
$1.0B in FY25 revenues incl just under
$700MM in product sales & just over
$300MM in licensing. It appears APLS Q425 sales missed ests by ~5%. APLS' shares are down ~25% the last 3 days.
The attachment compares APLS 10-year analyst consensus revenue estimates to Amicus
$FOLD which is about to be acquired for an enterprise value of roughly
$4.8B (market cap of roughly
$4.43B as of 1/14/26 per Seeking Alpha). APLS MC =
$2.6B & is expected to do more sales @ a slightly lower gross margin
FOLD reported
$450MM in 9 month product sales trending to ~
$600MM for the year. Both sell 2 therapies.
It's our experience over the last 2 years APLS usually trades @ lower revenue multiples than peers. APLS trades @ half of FOLD's 10-year M&A revenue multiple. Perhaps FOLD should consider an alternate strategy to maximize shareholder value?
Are we wrong?
Be careful. For all we know APLS execs may have spooked investors at the JPM HC Conf yesterday.
$XBI $IBB $NBI