Aug. 25 at 11:03 AM
$MRNA If Moderna’s other cancer programs start failing, the stock could give back a large part of the post–August 19 move, because the current valuation appears to include substantial value for intismeran working in cancers beyond melanoma.
Reuters Breakingviews made essentially this point: melanoma alone may support only a fraction of the roughly
$30B increase in Moderna’s market value. Barclays estimates about
$3B of annual melanoma sales by 2035, and Moderna splits economics with Merck 50/50 in addition to costs. Reuters estimated that the market reaction effectively implied something closer to ~
$13B annual sales across multiple cancers, meaning investors are already assigning meaningful value to lung, bladder, kidney and potentially other indications.
