Jan. 13 at 8:50 PM
Tesla shares edged lower Tuesday, even as a Wolfe Research analyst remained “tactically constructive” on the stock despite what he called a difficult fundamental setup for 2026. The loss of the
$7,500 U.S. federal EV tax credit is expected to weigh on industrywide demand, limiting near-term growth.
Wolfe’s Emmanuel Rosner forecasts Tesla’s 2026 EV sales to rise about 6% to nearly 1.8 million vehicles, roughly returning the company to its 2023 sales level. However, higher AI-related spending leads him to project 2026 earnings per share of
$1.84, below Wall Street’s consensus and well under Tesla’s peak earnings in 2022.
Rosner’s longer-term optimism centers on autonomous driving and robo-taxis. Tesla has launched a limited robo-taxi service in Austin and could expand it further in 2026, a year Rosner says must show meaningful progress in Full Self-Driving.
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