Oct. 4 at 8:58 PM
$NVAX continue
First four products (e.g., CIC as #1, pandemic flu as #2): Up to
$200M total across development/launch (e.g.,
$50M per product midpoint).
• Each additional product thereafter (e.g., future RSV or shingles): Up to
$210M per product, plus mid-single digit royalties.
• Pandemic flu (BARDA-funded Phase 1/2) could trigger initial payments in H2 2026 if Phase 2 advances.
Total Potential and Context
• Up to
$1.2B overall (upfront + milestones), with
$725M realized—
$475M remaining for core CLA, plus
$200M+ for first four Matrix-M products and scalable per-product upside.
• 2026 guidance:
$200-300M in milestones/royalties, assuming combo momentum.
• Risks: Trial delays or failures could defer/eliminate; Q3 2025 earnings (November 5, 2025) may update on transfers.
