Jul. 13 at 10:13 AM
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$MRK is caught in the ultimate "damned if you do, damned if you don't" trap. They're staring down the barrel of Keytruda's patent-losing a
$30 B/year cash cow. If they sit on their hands, their oncology empire is cooked.
The unfortunate part about trying to play it safe?
$LLY is sitting on crazy cash from their obesity drugs and can drop
$100B on
$SLS and not even blink If Merck is forced to bid anyway, why not blow the doors off the hinges early and make the competition pay WAY MORE to match them?
If I’m Merck, I don’t wait for the readout. I slide
$40B opening bid across the table right now to lock down the platform (
$215+/share). If
$LLY or
$JNJ try to jump in, Merck needs to have the banks lined up to drop another
$60B immediately. Force others to either walk away or completely over-leverage themselves just to stay in the room.
A
$100B bid isn't crazy they still make money over the years PLUS
$SLS WT1 tech covers 20+ cancers. Buyout forces
$MRK to go big or go home.
