May. 14 at 6:55 PM
Many are underestimating the potential takeout value of
$LQDA. A few comps help frame it.
$MRK bought Acceleron in 2021 for
$11.5B, a Phase 3 PAH asset with no revenue, ~4–5x peak sales. It became Winrevair (sotatercept).
Winrevair only covers PAH (~40K U.S. patients). YUTREPIA covers both PAH and PH-ILD, expanding the addressable base to ~100–140K patients.
So even the Acceleron comp is conservative: similar patient base vs.
$11.5B, while
$LQDA is significantly larger.
At the top end,
$JNJ paid
$30B for Actelion in 2017 (~13x sales), a mature PAH franchise benchmark.
Even ignoring L606, IPF/PPF, PH-COPD, and assigning zero to PH-ILD, the implied acquisition floor remains above many conservative market estimates.
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