Sep. 22 at 3:43 PM
$ABVX Efficacious drugs like Obe don't come too often. We have a good 2x on our hands. Then whats the problem?
It is:
- we want the
$17B+ deal to happen yesterday
- BPs seem reluctant to write a cheque for
$17B+ for a single indication drug
-
$ABVX management most likely wont settle below
$17B, because they don't see Obe as a single indication drug
-
$ABVX management seem in no hurry to sign the deal, unlike us retail shareholders. They can easily wait for CD Phase 2b initial readout in mid 2027. By that time, they will also have some solid insights into the combination potential of Obe.
- If CD hits,
$ABVX valuation will be
$20B+, but boards of BP's like
$LLY/
$JNJ/
$NVS will be more comfortable to OK the deal
- Problem I have is, I on seeing a derisked asset and believing the online chatter about imminent BO since almost 1 yr, massively overallocated. This has resulted in massive opportunity costs. Had it been a 10% position, the delay wouldn't have bothered me, may even have added
