Jun. 10 at 2:55 PM
$ARDX trades for 0.10X cumulative 10-year revenue estimates. The attachment shows M&A valuations of 6 commercial-stage bios like ARDX acquired @ 0.33 to 0.42X their 10-year revenue projections. Actual recent ARDX gross margin rates are higher than these peers forecast. Does this suggest ARDX shareholder value is likely maximized via ARDX acquisition if (& THESE ARE HUGE IFs)
1. ARDX revenue estimates are credible AND if;
2. ARDX's 2 products (same API) are worth a market multiple consistent with these peers
Because ARDX's last patent expires in FY2034, these may not be apples to apples comparisons.
If ARDX were acquired at the lowest 0.33X 10-year revenue multiple that would still result in a 200% increase in market cap (ignoring enterprise value & dilutive shares). We'd genuinely like to know if ARDX investors believe ARDX would warrant a market revenue multiple if acquired?
Next comps will be
$BCRX &
$MIRM
This is not investment advice.
$XBI $NBI
