May. 18 at 8:23 PM
Bernstein flagged that while strict contract pricing remains very high & tight due to intense AI server demand, the secondary spot market (consumer electronics, low-end PCs) has seen small localized price drops. This creates a slight visual plateau or downward bend on aggregate charts.
In their investor updates, analyst Mark Li stated that contract price negotiations for early 2026 have consistently surpassed their own initial expectations. The lines plotted on the chart represent a conservative baseline model, but current real-world pricing has historically trended with strong "upside risk" compared to these precise visual lines
Trendforce: As shown in the 2nd table, SK hynix recorded a mid-60% q/q DRAM & mid-70% q/q NAND price hike just within 1Q26 alone & printed a jaw-dropping 72% op profit margin for 1Q26
Bernstein notes that "Both DRAM & NAND contract prices are indicated to see another major increase in 2Q26, and at a rate ahead of our expectation too" adding that "demand remained robust for server DRAM & eSSD, and continued keeping supply tight"
Bernstein underestimated the severity of the AI server hardware deficit, which practically permitted the manufacturers to set historically unprecedented record-high premiums
$MU $DRAM $EWY $CHAT $TSM