Aug. 4 at 6:09 PM
$MLTX HS thesis still intact but competitive picture matters. VELA 52wk data is good, better than UCB's Bimzelx, but not overwhelmingly so.
Real threat is
$ABBV's lutikizumab (IL-1α/β). Ph2 was strong even in 100% anti-TNF/Humira-failed pts, cleaner safety than anti-IL-17s. P3 topline (1,300 pts) due later this yr. Downside: weekly induction; maintenance can stay QW or step to Q2W — still SC either way.
$ABBV's Rinvoq (oral JAK1, HiSCR50) also reads out P3 this yr. Not a direct competitor but it'll enrich ABBV's HS franchise.
Street's pricing SLK as me-too with a better drug on the horizon (despite P3 pending). But derm/rheum TAM is massive and growing, not winner-take-all. Pts cycle through treatments their whole life, room for multiple drugs to coexist.
That's why I'm still long, SLK secures real share across multiple indications, just less than we hoped a yr ago.
Sharing the broader picture in case you missed
$ABBV's ER.
