Feb. 21 at 1:37 PM
$SLS Why
$25 Billion is "Cheap" for Merck or Pfizer or Abbvie
Let’s look at the "Buyout Boys" and why they might happily pay
$50B!
The Keytruda Killer:
$MRK ’s Keytruda generates
$30B to
$35B PER YEAR. However, it hits a patent cliff in 2028.
The "Sequel" Strategy: If Merck buys SELLAS, they don't just get a new drug; they get a way to protect their
$30B/year franchise. By combining Keytruda with GPS, they can create a new, patented "Super-Drug" that extends their monopoly for another 10–15 years.
$ABBV : AbbVie is a monster with a
$500B war chest capacity through 2030. AbbVie's oncology division is currently "bleeding" (Imbruvica sales are down 23%); they desperately need a win like GPS.
The Valuation : If an acquisition saves a
$300B revenue stream over a decade, paying
$40B or
$50B for the key (SELLAS) is a bargain. This is why Pfizer paid
$43B for Seagen—they weren't buying today's sales; they were buying the future of oncology.
My 2027/2028 calls await you
$MRK $ABBV $PFE
