Mar. 23 at 11:29 PM
$BCRX analyst consensus revenue estimates versus
$FOLD both as of 12/15/25 (4 days before FOLD announced its sale). Obviously BCRX revenue estimates have been revised since but these are both as of 12/15/25.
Analysts forecast FOLD (again at the time) to generate 5.8% more revenues over the 10 year FY25 - FY34 period. However, BCRX product sales generated roughly 8% more gross profit margin in FY25.
FOLD was acquired for an enterprise value of roughly
$4.8B (FOLD's cash/debt was a wash).
For those investors who believe drugs like Galafold & Orladeyo are worth some multiple and/or NPV of projected sales, FOLD may be a good peer for guesstimating a BCRX exit valuation. FOLD's SG&A was
$40MM higher in FY25. There are other differences investors should consider including the costs to complete Astria's trials. BCRX's FY25 R&D expense was roughly
$40MM higher.
This is not investment advice. We have no idea what BCRX might be worth in a hypothetical M&A exit.
$XBI $IBB
