Mar. 17 at 1:55 AM
$BCRX 10-year analyst consensus revenue estimates v. the like 10-year revenue forecasts prepared by the mgmt/BOD of 9 peer comm'l-stage bios when acquired
Analysts forecast BCRX to generate slightly more revenues than CCXI mgmt/BOD forecast when CCXI was acquired for an EV of
$3.7B. By itself, does this suggest BCRX would be worth more in EV if (2 HUGE IFs) BCRX analyst revenue estimates were credible AND if BCRX was worth peer M&A multiples. What about Astria clinical trial expenses to meet forecasts
$FOLD mgmt/BOD forecast 10-year revenues roughly 5% higher than analysts forecast for BCRX. FOLD was acquired for an EV of ~
$4.8B
We're curious if BCRX investors believe BCRX is therefore worth somewhere between
$3.7 &
$4.8B (on the highest end) in a M&A exit? Are BCRX analyst estimates credible? Are the comparisons "apples to apples"?
Also attached is a fully diluted BCRX cap table at
$15 per share using BCRX's 12/31/25 cap table (excl FY26 stock activity).
We're probably wrong. TINIA
