Jul. 17 at 10:25 AM
Morgan Stanley Upgrades
$FOLD to Overweight from Equalweight, PT
$12 (100% upside)
Analyst comments: "We upgraded to OW (prior EW) based on our favorable view of FOLD's intellectual property position heading into summary judgment with Aurobindo (detailed analysis inside) and longer term confidence in patients switching from Nexviazyme/Lumizyme to PomOp.
Recall, 1Q25 miss was driven by order timing and the higher UK VPAG (Voluntary Scheme for Branded Medicines Pricing and Access) rebate rate of 22%, compared to the anticipated 12–15%, reflected in the updated guidance. We also note that mgt. reiterated that they expect limited tariff impact in 2025 given careful expense management, supply chain planning, and 2025 US sales inventory already being within the US.
Estimates: We are in-line/slightly below consensus on 2Q25 Galafold sales (MSe:
$124.0M or +19.0% q/q vs. Cons:
$124.4M or +19.3% q/q) and PomOp sales (MSe:
$23.0M or +9.5% q/q vs. Cons:
$24.3M or +15.6% q/q).
Model Updates: We add DMX-200 to our model after Amicus licensed US rights to commercialize Dimerix's DMX-200 for the treatment of Focal Segmental Glomerulosclerosis (FSGS)."
Analyst: Maxwell Skor
