Jul. 31 at 10:40 PM
$LFMD Q2 guidance raises some interesting questions.
A simple way to view the business is:
Subscribers × ARPU = Revenue
Looking at the data, compounded GLP-1 monetization appears to have peaked in Q1 2025. Since then, revenue and implied monthly ARPU have moved lower quarter over quarter.
But there is one important detail: subscriber growth has continued every quarter.
Using management’s Q2 midpoint:
Revenue:
$48.5M
Subscribers: 365K
Implied monthly ARPU:
$44.29
That would mean roughly a 9% ARPU decline from Q1, the largest drop in the period analyzed.
If subscribers grow 7.4%, the implied ARPU decline becomes even larger.
At Q1 ARPU levels, revenue could be closer to
$53M-
$55M depending on subscriber growth.
The big question: is guidance conservative, is the mix shift accelerating, or is there another factor missing from the model?