Nov. 28 at 12:27 PM
Mizuho reitd
$TERN Outperform/
$33
$NVS $ELVN
Mizuho said in its note
Ahead of next P1 data for TERN-701 (TERN's allosteric TKI) in CML (expected 12/8 at the ASH meeting), we compile our thoughts and provide an overview of the opportunity.
We recall the ASH abstract data, where '701's 64% 6-month median molecular response/MMR far surpassed expectations, with TERN shares soaring 240% (vs. +7% XBI) in the time since.
Given
(1) continued momentum for Novartis' (NVS, NC) asciminib/Scemblix, where
(a) Scemblix continues to make gains across all lines of treatment, and
(b) NVS recently increased its peak sales guidance for Scemblix to
$4BN+ (from
$3BN+), and
(2) our excitement for TERN-701, where we believe an updated 6-month MMR even in the 30-40% range (while lower than the prior 64% reported) would still
(a) exceed the ~25% benchmark established by Scemblix, and
(b) position '701 as a future best-in-class allosteric TKI that could challenge Scemblix's ascendancy, we stay OP-rated on TERN.
