May. 8 at 7:10 AM
$DCTH I listened to the CC. Revenues were below what I estimated. I think Sandra said volume growth was “mid 20%”. Did she mean mid 20s - about 25%? Revenue per Hepzato procedure would be about
$176K at 20% and
$170K at 25%. I suspect it’s the former. Gross margins maintained around 85%. R&D up as expected. Procedures per center pcm approx 1.6, up from 1.5 in Q4. New starts 0.7 per centre pcm. That’s probably similar to 2025 but numbers treated per centre were more on average, likely due to experienced very active centers like Moffit being a bigger percentage of the mix. Modelling a similar seasonal variation like 2025, and only 33 centers treating at end 2026, I get
$108M 2026 revenue. That’s a base case. At 37 centers I get
$110M. If no seasonal slowdown and 37 centers
$120M. If treatments per centre increase (Chopin/re-treatments/more adoption) and we get back to 2 per centre pcm by Q4, and 37 centers, FY 2026 revenue is at
$125M
