Sep. 12 at 6:42 PM
$DCTH some folks don't believe Delcath can run these trials in perpetuity without raising money, so I'll share some 2026 numbers to explain why I disagree.
Assuming a 12.5% (midpoint) reduction in rev/kit due to the 340b pricing takes their 187.5k/kit down to ~164k. Inflation adjust kit price for 2026 by 2025 inflation (2.9%) raises to ~169k. Using full-year avg of 33 sites (should be 25-28 active by year end and 40 by end 2026), revenue would come in around
$133.7M.
Based on mgt commentary, they expect 4Q25 R&D to be around
$12.6M and full-year SG&A to be around
$47.25M. Annualizing that q4 number, which I believe is somewhat conservative as I think trial costs are being frontloaded, and maintaining that annual SG&A leads to Opex of
$97.66M.
At 85% gross margin, this leads to ~16m net income for 2026. Keep in mind they have 81M$ cash on hand at end 2Q25 to cushion individual quarter cash burn.
Critique or other models welcome. I do wish Sandra outlined total trial costs better in CCs.
