KryptonResearch14
Oct 6, 2:31 AM
$NVAX
Up 20% Monday to 12.56, a new 52-week high (prior 11.97, set Feb 26). 28.5M shares vs a 50-day average of 4.8M (MarketWatch). Peers:
$MRNA +7%,
$BNTX +0.8%.
The driver is Sanofi doing the selling. Novavax handed Sanofi Nuvaxovid's commercial rights, and this fall is Sanofi's first full launch cycle: rollout in the US, UK, Germany and Canada, with direct-to-consumer marketing starting.
That handoff is the whole investment story now. Novavax collects milestones plus royalties in the high teens to low twenties percent of Sanofi's global net sales (Q2 release).
After the season: a 125 million milestone when the COVID-flu combo trial starts (Sanofi in late-stage regulatory talks), and 75 million when manufacturing tech transfer completes in mid-2027. Novavax says the two, plus royalties, fund the runway into the 2030s.
Q2 shows the quarters without milestones: 57 million in revenue vs 239 million a year ago. The quarter does not matter. The Sanofi season does.
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