May. 5 at 9:53 PM
Valuation/revenue multiples of independent larger commercial-stage bios (those with
$1B+ FY26 analyst estimates) against the M&A multiples paid in peer M&A exits (those with
$1B+ revenue forecasts the year after acquisition).
Note most of the M&A exits, again of those with
$1B+ revenue forecasts, were priced for ~4.0X Year 4 sales (which would be FY29 for the peer group on top). Is that a good barometer for hypothetical M&A exits (with like gross margins)?
We also noted all but 1 acquisition were priced at 0.84 to 1.37X 5-year revenue forecasts. Again is a 0.90 to 1.0X 5-year revenues a good barometer for modeling?
Exercise caution as we use enterprise value to calculate multiples in both peer groups (including those independent because cash/debt are meaningful to all but the relationship is therefore not linear)
NBIX/BMRN/ALKS are swallowing acquisitions (EV data may change)
$JAZZ &
$NBIX are up after hours. Valuations reflect today's close
$ACAD $BMRN &
$ALKS trade @ lower multiples
