Jul. 11 at 6:49 PM
$SMH
FLY HIGH BLACK SWAN
"NVDA alone is the BLACK SWAN that will trigger a brutal market rout—floating like a balloon of hopium above the market’s weary spine. The stock trades just
$3 above last year’s highs, yet investors held through April’s plunge to break even. This is , not a hate post. NVDA anchors a rally built on velocity, not valuation—a
$4T balloon lifted by AI euphoria, but weighed down by thinning liquidity. Fundamentals are eroding: China revenue gone, hyperscalers building custom chips, and forward expectations outpacing earnings. A 10% one-day shock is plausible given saturated volumes, hedging mechanics, and breadth decay. Strategy: Trim exposure. Sit out the liquidity drain. Patience is profit when the air gets thin. They’re still buying—still hoping. But when it unravels. Be out of the way"
p.s SMH at 20% exposure. what could go wrong,