Jan. 7 at 9:07 PM
$ACHC I think the bull thesis Is predicated on stabilized PLGL costs, a guide for 2026 of
$650-
$700M of Adj EBITDA, and no new negative surprises. Company has also not bought a single share since Q1, which Is extremely concerning on Its own. I don't doubt they wish they could buy the stock, but I don't think they can - the money has either been spent on the shareholder settlement and/or Is earmarked for other settlements and/or the DOJ Investigation by Itself makes It Impossible for them to buy back stock (unclear on whether they can be prohibited from buying back stock In the middle of an Investigation).
The bear case Is predicated on - book value Is B.S. There may be
$32/share nominally on the balance sheet after you take Into consideration the ~1.50/share they are spending on the shareholder settlement, but there Is a lot more sitting behind that that will make book value "catch down" to the current share price.
I doubt company will say anything material at the JPM conference.
