Dec. 16 at 3:53 PM
$SPRO $2.275 ask. BUY/10X add to long position carries SPA 87.64 tag to
$8.00 in midterm with added probability of a T/O at
$12.00 by
$GSK .
SPECIAL NOTE:
GSK’s long-term strategy for its partnership with Spero Therapeutics is centered on establishing Tebipenem HBr as a cornerstone of its growing infectious disease portfolio:
1. Market Commercialization Strategy
GSK plans to leverage its extensive sales infrastructure to launch Tebipenem HBr in mid-2026, assuming FDA approval.
"Stay-Home/Get-Home" Focus: GSK aims to market the drug as the first and only oral carbapenem antibiotic for complicated urinary tract infections (cUTIs). The goal is to reduce hospital stays by allowing patients to receive standard-of-care carbapenem therapy at home.
Synergy with Blujepa: GSK plans to exploit significant sales synergies with its recently approved antibiotic Blujepa (gepotidacin), which launched in the second half of 2025 for uncomplicated UTIs. Together, these drugs allow GSK to cover the entire patient population for urinary tract infections.
2. Regulatory and Ownership Plans
Transfer of Sponsorship: Following the successful Phase 3 PIVOT-PO trial (stopped early for efficacy in May 2025), sponsorship of the New Drug Application (NDA) will officially transfer from Spero to GSK for the planned Q4 2025 resubmission.
Potential Acquisition: Industry analysts have noted that GSK may eventually seek to acquire Spero Therapeutics to avoid the long-term milestone payments (up to
$525 million total) and tiered royalties it currently owes under the license agreement. GSK already holds a 16% stake in Spero's common stock.
3. Financial Milestones
The long-term agreement involves substantial success-based payments from GSK to Spero:
Development & Regulatory Milestones: GSK is expected to pay approximately
$175 million in milestones over the next 12 months (late 2025 into 2026) tied to the NDA submission and potential approval.
Commercial Milestones: Future payments include up to
$101 million (revised from
$150 million due to the early trial stop) upon the first commercial sale in major markets.
Sales Performance: Spero remains eligible for an additional
$225 million in payments if net sales exceed specific thresholds, plus royalties reaching into the low double digits.
