Jul. 12 at 2:15 PM
$SLS 🚨 BREAKING MATH: If the REGAL trial unblinds at 80 events and the control group accounts for all 63, the GPS arm is left with just 17 events.
To hit its own (MOS), the GPS group needs *32 events* BUT if only 17 died, the GPS arm literally CANNOT reach its MOS at the final readout.
The CEO continues to say he expects GPS to match or exceed the Phase 2 trial results (3 times longer) than the current standard of care (21.0 months vs. 5.4 months).
If the GPS group sits at only 17 events at the 80th death, it would require an additional **15 events** just to touch its MOS. At the current slow rate ,they wouldn't hit a GPS MOS until NEXT YEAR **6 years** since the trial started + nearly 3 YEARS since the very last patient was dosed.
A trial running this long with a "GPS MOS NOT Reached" = sMIRACLE! Wall Street is completely blind to a potential **
$50+ explosion** if these dynamics lock in. The shorts are trapped and the buyout battle between these 4
$LLY $PFE $MRK $JNJ goes CRAZY!!
