Jan. 2 at 12:54 PM
$MAIA The 2028 Patent Cliff: A Looming Oncology Reset for Big Pharma
Why did Big Pharma bring a ladder to the 2028 patent cliff?
Because they heard THIO was a step up from survival to competitive edge.
Seriously … The oncology market is heading toward a major reset in 2028. As primary patents for the world’s most successful cancer drugs expire, Big Pharma is racing to build new “efficacy moats”, therapies that enhance existing blockbusters and protect them from low-cost generics.
$MAIA Biotechnology’s THIO, a first-in-class telomere-targeting agent, is emerging as a potential “universal primer” these companies need to defend market share.
The 4 Big Pharma Companies Facing 2028 Revenue Gaps
1. Merck (
$MRK) – Keytruda
Patent expiration: 2028
Issue: Keytruda represents roughly 40% of Merck’s revenue. Even with new antibody-drug conjugates, Merck must address patient resistance to its core immunotherapy to sustain long-term dominance.
2. Bristol Myers Squibb (
$BMY) – Opdivo
Patent expiration: 2028
Issue: BMY faces a double patent cliff with Opdivo and Eliquis. The company is aggressively pursuing next-generation oncology assets to justify premium combination therapies versus incoming generics.
3. Roche (
$RHHBY) – Tecentriq
Patent expiration: Around 2028
Issue: After setbacks in its TIGIT pipeline, Roche needs a strong combination partner to keep Tecentriq competitive as biosimilars enter the market.
4. Pfizer (
$PFE) – Ibrance / Xtandi
Patent expiration: 2027–2028
Issue: Pfizer’s
$43B Seagen acquisition strengthened its ADC portfolio, but it still lacks a broadly applicable immune-priming therapy. THIO’s ability to target telomerase — present in about 85% of cancers — offers the wide reach Pfizer needs.
Why THIO Is Potentially the Strategic Missing Piece
Overcoming resistance
The biggest threat to these drugs isn’t just patent expiration, it’s resistance. Many patients eventually stop responding to PD-1 therapies like Keytruda and Opdivo. THIO is designed to re-sensitize “cold” tumors, effectively restarting the clock on these blockbuster drugs.
The combination moat
Pairing a new patented therapy like THIO with aging blockbuster drugs creates a new standard of care. Physicians won’t default to generics if a THIO-based combination delivers dramatically improved survival, as suggested by MAIA’s early clinical data.
Targeting 85% of cancers
Unlike ADCs or mutation-specific approaches, THIO targets telomerase — a near-universal cancer mechanism. This makes it a highly scalable, bolt-on asset for any major oncology portfolio.
Bottom Line
Merck, BMS, Roche, and Pfizer are all chasing the same objective: maintaining oncology dominance after 2028.
Currently, Regeneron, Roche, and BeiGene are supplying drugs for MAIA’s trials, giving them early visibility into the data. If THIO’s Phase 3 trials continue to demonstrate meaningful survival improvements in late-stage patients, a competitive bidding scenario for MAIA’s technology becomes increasingly plausible.
IMO - DYOR
