Jan. 12 at 7:35 PM
$SNDX disclosed actual FY25 Niktimvo US product sales were
$152MM. SNDX owns 50% of Niktimvo with
$INCY
Niktimvo's peer therapy Rezurock from Kadmon Holdings (approved Q321) was acquired by Sanofi for
$1.9B in Q421
Kadmon provided Sanofi a financial forecast that we assume was used to determine Rezurock's M&A valuation. Kadmon projected
$63MM in first full year Rezurock sales. Hence simple math shows Niktimvo outsold Rezurock's forecast by more than 2.4X
If new drugs like Niktimvo & Rezurock are worth some multiple and/or NPV of projected sales, and Niktimvo has outsold Rezurock by more than 2.4X, does this mean Niktimvo's hypothetical M&A valuation is 2.4X more than Rezurock?
If Niktimvo was acquired for the same multiple of first full year sales as Rezurock's projection, Niktimvo's M&A valuation would be
$4.6B. Again, SNDX owns 50% of Niktimvo.
This is not investment advice. We have no idea if Niktimvo is worth the same revenue multiple as Rezurock.
Pushback?
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