Jul. 30 at 1:56 PM
While
$SNDX partner
$INCY reported compelling Niktimvo Q225 sales yesterday morning, SNDX reports Q225 Revuforj sales next week. Because INCY reports Niktimvo sales, SNDX analyst revenue estimates reflect Revuforj only (outside some ex-US Niktimvo royalties). Rezurock non-US sales were not 5% of the US in its 1st 3 years. In Q125, Rezurock ex-US sales were ~16% of US
Of the 11 analysts that cover SNDX, 3 provide consistent longer-term peak sales ests north of
$1B/year. Attached is a comparison of SNDX 10-year analyst revenue estimates compared to like estimates from 6 SNDX peers whose mgmt (not analysts) projected roughly the same
$750 -
$1B peak sales profile. All were acquired for
$1.7 to
$2.2B.
If SNDX analyst estimates are credible & if Revuforj is worth a M&A revenue multiple consistent with these 6 peers (2 HUGE IFs) then is it possible Revuforj is worth a like valuation should SNDX exit via M&A?
What about Niktimvo (
$RPRX)?
We'd genuinely appreciate perspectives.
$XBI