Sep. 14 at 3:05 PM
The odds are overwhelming
$DAWN shareholder value is maximized via M&A. It used to be common sense smaller cap bios exit via M&A after approval. Everyone wins in M&A (especially healthcare costs in general via consolidation).
Per numerous studies from industry to government to academia, only 2 to 5% of new cancer drugs in Phase 1 trials are ever approved.
Instead of exiting via M&A, it appears DAWN mgmt is rolling the dice with the value created via Ojemda's approval on DAY-301. DAWN even hired a VP of R&D. Of course DAY-301
$LLY &/or other projects may work out but the odds are long. Enough patients have been treated with Ojemda to know if Firefly will succeed
For perspective on the opportunity for DAWN shareholders, the graph shows DAWN is comfortably outselling peer CTIC/Vonjo post approval.
$CTIC exited via M&A @
$1.7B while DAWN's EV is not
$300MM. That's a disgrace because DAWN mgmt & BOD are only obligated to maximize shareholder value.
This is not investment advice.
