May. 20 at 7:50 PM
$VST is up about 7% today, bouncing from a multi-week IPP/utility selloff, but the real question is: reversal or just an oversold bounce?
Just days ago it was down ~10% in five sessions to 52-week lows on sector de-rating, yet fundamentals didn’t change. Q1 still showed +43% revenue growth,
$1.49B EBITDA, and FY26 guidance intact.
What shifted is the valuation regime: 30Y yields above 5% plus AI-power multiple compression reset the sector.
But the gap stands out —
$VST at low-teens forward P/E versus
$CEG at 20–25x. Is that spread justified?
And then there’s what may be missing: Cogentrix 5.5GW gas assets and Meta’s 20-year, 2.6GW+ nuclear PPA not reflected in FY26/27 estimates.
12M range
$158 /
$200 /
$108, ~+15% probability-weighted upside. Still holding.
