Jan. 29 at 7:23 AM
$BE Growth is too slow, Bloom’s capacity to generate gigawatts is not scaling fast enough. Though sensible - 2GW target by the end of 2026 is tame.
Their share price increase so far is impressive, it builds in expectation of growth. Soon as they lock in scaling, the growth potential from selling and long-term servicing explodes. If it gets to 5GW yearly by 2030, that’s 20GW in service contracts— which at the current pricing, would equate to 25 to 30 billion revenue.
Using a revenue multiplier of 10 to 20 lands at valuation of 250-600 mbillion cap. With huge upside potential…. some people wonder why it has already moved, reality is that it hasn’t moved enough.
Money is made when the future is not certain. By the end of 2026 and scaling is validated - I believe we will be close 80-100b mcap. Currently we are 39b.
