May. 9 at 5:26 AM
🚀
$TSLA — Wave 2 done, VWAP bounce confirmed, Wave 3 launching
⸻
🪨 Spot
$428.35 (+4.02%). Friday closed near highs. Anchored VWAP bounce + multi-touch
$345 support = Wave 2 termination signal.
⸻
📜 The structure:
▪ Wave (1):
$502.65 (1.0 fib)
▪ Wave (2): completed
$345-
$370 (VWAP bounce)
▪ Wave (3): target
$676 (1.618 fib)
▪ Wave (4): projected
$560 zone
▪ Wave (5):
$818 — truncation risk applies
⸻
🏛 Macro / catalyst stack:
▪ Q1 FY26 (April 22): Revenue
$22.4B (+16%), EPS
$0.41, FCF
$1.4B (+117%), cash
$44.7B
▪ Robotaxi live in Austin, Dallas, Houston. Expanding to ~12 states by 2026 EOY
▪ FSD subscriptions 1.28M (+51% YoY)
▪ Paid Robotaxi miles nearly doubled QoQ
▪ Optimus Fremont factory begins Q2 (replacing S/X)
▪ Gigafactory TX Optimus designed for 10M robots/year
▪ 2026 capex
$25B — AI/robotics commitment
⸻
🧭 Key dates:
▪ Q2 deliveries: early July
▪ Q2 earnings: late July
▪ FSD V15: pending
▪ Roadster unveiling: pending
⸻
🚀 Institutional positioning (Friday LEAPs):
▪ Strikes to
$990 Jun28 = +122% upside
▪
$670 weighted avg target
▪ ARK PT
$4,600 (extreme bull case)
⸻
🪨 Trade plan:
▪ Patient entry:
$370-
$385 (VWAP retest)
▪ Aggressive:
$428 / stop
$345
▪ T1
$470 / T2
$502 / T3
$568 / T4
$643 / T5
$676 / Stretch
$818
▪ Invalidation: daily close below
$345
⸻
🪞 Read:
VWAP bounce + Wave 2 termination + AI/robotics catalyst stack + institutional LEAPs all align. Wave 3 is the testable target — the path Q3 earnings either confirms or breaks. Wave 5 (
$818) is projection, not commitment.
⸻
NFA. Process over prediction. Risk-first, always.
$TSLA $TSM $NVDA $SPY $QQQ
#wavervanir #volanx #quant #optionsflow
