Jun. 13 at 3:03 PM
$SPCX $TSLA
TRADITIONAL VALUATION OF SPACE X NOT APPLICABLE: Just understand what happened to Tesla:
The Tesla debate: Tesla may have appeared overvalued on traditional metrics many times over the past 16 years. Yet investors who focused solely on valuation missed one of the greatest wealth-creating stocks in market history.
Using split-adjusted historical data through 2026:
*
$100 invested at the IPO grew to approximately
$28,709
* Total return: approximately +28,600%
* Annualized return: approximately 43% per year over 16 years.
Tesla has been called “overvalued” almost continuously since its IPO in 2010. The reason is simple: many investors valued Tesla as a traditional automaker, while Tesla investors valued it as a technology, AI, energy, autonomy, and robotics company.
Because of this “overvaluation debate, many short sellers and Elon Musk Haters betted agains Tesla. Short sellers’ cumulative mark-to-market losses since its 2010 IPO remain massive, estimated in the
$60–65 billion range as of recent data.
The challenge for traditional valuation is that both Tesla and SpaceX continually redefine what business they are in. People who valued Tesla as only a car company missed energy storage, AI, Robotaxis, and Optimus.
People who value SpaceX only as a launch company may be overlooking Starlink, orbital infrastructure, communications networks, data centers in space, and the broader space economy.
Even Wall Street observers acknowledge that much of SpaceX’s valuation is based on future markets that are difficult to model using traditional valuation methods
Whether every one of Musk’s ambitions succeeds remains uncertain. However, history has shown that betting solely on current earnings and existing markets has often underestimated his ability to expand into entirely new industries. That is why many investors argue that Tesla and SpaceX are not merely companies—they are platforms for future innovation, making traditional valuation models increasingly difficult to apply.
