Aug. 20 at 12:50 PM
$ET If by “
$2 billion earnings” you mean Energy Transfer (ET) produces roughly
$2B of net income attributable to partners in both Q3 and Q4 2026, I’d view that as a bullish scenario.
ET already produced
$2.09B of net income in Q2 2026, up from
$1.16B a year earlier, while adjusted EBITDA was
$5.07B. Management subsequently raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to
$18.8B–
$19.1B.
My year-end ET estimate
Assuming:
Q3 net income ≈
$2.0B
Q4 net income ≈
$2.0B
Q1 was roughly comparable to the current elevated earnings environment
No major deterioration in energy volumes/commodity conditions
Distribution remains around the current
$0.3375/unit quarterly level
I'd estimate:
Scenario Approx. EOY ET price
Conservative
$21–23
Base case
$24–26
Strong
$2B +
$2B earnings case
$26–29
Very bullish / MLP rerating
$30–32+
