Jul. 31 at 8:15 PM
$AM — HOLD
2025 revenue was
$1.2B with adjusted EBITDA of
$1.0B, but the stock still screens at about 11x EV/EBITDA and roughly 16x free cash flow, leaving limited upside from current levels.
Leverage remains manageable at 3.4x net debt/EBITDA, yet the balance sheet is not cheap enough to offset concentration risk because substantially all of Antero Resources’ 566,000 gross acres are dedicated through 2038.
Cash returns are solid, with the dividend near
$0.90/share and annualized yield around 6%, but growth is constrained by a contract base tied to one customer and a narrower set of gathering assets.
The setup supports steady cash generation, but with a fair value case near the mid-teens and only modest re-rating potential, the risk/reward stays balanced rather than compelling.
Full research: https://lf0.com/research/antero-midstream-stock-analysis-am/
