Sep. 6 at 1:17 AM
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$BTU | Options structure pins price — mild bullish bias, trade spreads not shares
The Setup: Peabody shows concentrated options positioning at
$18 (Net IP peak + CMPS resistance magnet) while RVWAP and RC60 slope remain bullish. Monte Carlo shows slight short-term downside tail risk, but structural confluence (options + institutional flows) keeps the directional edge bullish. Short-term trades should favor defined-risk options.
Critical Levels:
Support:
$16 (CMPS support magnet)
Pin / Confluence:
$18 (Net IP + CMPS peak — expect low realized vol/pinning)
Resistance / breakout:
$20 (Options Volume POC — break above flips structure bullish)
Most Likely Scenario: Price holds in the
$16–
$20 band with a magnet near
$18; modest upside to
$20 if flows remain constructive over 1–2 weeks
Key Risk: Break & hold under
$16 (puts accelerate), or a macro shock that forces options unwinds (deal news, large sell block). Also watch earnings/operational headlines and any M&A fallout
not financial advice.
