Aug. 14 at 12:47 PM
Wells Fargo initiated coverage of MT with an “Equal Weight” rating and
$33 PT, implying a 2026 EV/EBITDA of 4.5x, slightly above the 10-year average on a stronger balance sheet and shareholder returns.
Upside could come from U.S. tariff relief—especially for Canadian exports aiding Dofasco—and stricter trade barriers in Brazil/EU, though timing is uncertain. MT is expanding in India to 15M metric tons by 2026 from 7–7.5M, with additional projects in Liberia and North America.
Steel prices in Europe/Brazil remain low, with recovery dependent on trade protection. In the U.S., 50% import tariffs cost ~$ 150M per quarter. Wells Fargo forecasts 2025 EBITDA at
$6.85B, 2026 at
$7.84B, and Q3 2025 at
$1.6B. While capacity growth, asset optimization, and decarbonization are positives, current valuation already reflects some potential catalysts.
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