Apr. 25 at 3:13 PM
$CRWV this stock gon get cut 80% after openai ipo liquid grab , but for now im mildly bullish since i bought a swing position at 108.xx , here are the bear cases :
1.The Debt-Covenant Death Spiral —
$30.8B at 11% variable, already renegotiated once on New Year's Eve
2. Magnetar + CEO Insider Selling Cascade —
$189M+ in 22 days, Omnadora LLC emptied to zero
3. OpenAI Counterparty Collapse —
$20B+ backlog depends on a company burning
$115B through 2029
4. GPU Collateral Collapse — H100 spot rates down 60%+, borrowing at 11% against depreciating assets => any model efficiency improve => bad for data center stocks
5. Hyperscaler Self-Build Cannibalisation — Bernstein's structural thesis:
$56 target,
$MSFT $AMZN $GOOG $META all have their own chips soon
6. Execution Failure Pattern — 3 delivery failures in 12 months: Denton, Core Scientific, Poolside
7.Macro Stagflation + Recession Cascade — the scenario where every other bear case activates simultaneously (lowest probability + least bear case)
