Jun. 6 at 12:27 AM
$GSAT holders should be encouraged by how well the stock is holding up despite weakness in
$AMZN.
This deal structure naturally ties value realization to AMZN’s stock price, and the market likely expected AMZN to be higher by the time the transaction closes. The fact that GSAT has not materially broken down while AMZN has pulled back shows real relative strength.
That said, I think the “higher offer” hopium is foolish. Could it happen? Sure. But that is not the serious bull case here.
The serious case is that the Amazon deal closes, the spread narrows, and AMZN stock recovers into closing. That is where the value is likely to come from, not from some white knight showing up with a higher bid.
GSAT is absorbing AMZN downside now because the market still believes in the transaction and is looking through near-term AMZN volatility. If AMZN rebounds into close, GSAT holders could be in a very strong position without needing a higher-offer miracle.
