Jul. 18 at 1:37 PM
$NBIS &
$AMZN
B U L L I S H
https://x.com/wsj/status/2078450472315474255?s=46
China's Moonshot just dropped Kimi K3 — 2.8 TRILLION parameters, the biggest open-source model ever. Weights out July 27. Headlines say it threatens the AI trade. I read it the opposite way.
A free frontier model that almost nobody can self-host means everyone who wants it has to RENT the compute. Bullish for the landlords, not the labs.
$AMZN — Bedrock serves every model, open or closed, and clips the toll either way.
$NBIS — already serves open models as-a-service, sits on a ~
$50B contracted backlog (Microsoft, Meta) and just signed a
$1B+ deal with open-source lab Reflection this week.
DeepSeek in Jan 2025 was the dress rehearsal: cheaper inference = token demand explosion. Jevons paradox.
Friday's tape already voted: chips sold off,
$NBIS +8%.
Models are the commodity. Compute is the moat.
