Aug. 9 at 7:18 AM
$SPCX I believe capex will fall as a percentage of revenue,,,,, not because they spend less but because rev catches it. That's the
$AMZN AWS model imo.
Amazon buried AWS inside Other and later inside North America segment reporting for years while it consumed enormous capex. Free cash flow went negative in 2012 and stayed ugly through 2014. In turn the stock fell about 25% in 2014 on exactly the complaint being leveled at SpaceX now
Amazon first broke AWS out as its own reporting segment in Q1 2015, showing roughly
$5B in annual revenue at 17% operating margin. The stock nearly doubled that year. Things that make you go hmmm.
$4.3B in Q2 connectivity rev with 1.7M net adds is a subscription biz but the real moat isn't the constellation but rather they launch their own satellites at marginal cost.
