Sep. 16 at 12:31 AM
$AMZN very strange setup into FED day 2moro.
-AMZN Put to call ratio is .70 or 70 puts for every 100 calls=bullish
-Broader Indexes P/C is .95 or 95 puts for every 100 calls=less bullish but index hedges make it appear a bit less so
A 25 bps hike is expected= CME watchtool predicts it at 90% probability. Markets believe it =decent selling has come in since the odds peaked post PPI/CPI inflation reports last week.
*Key= If he does raise as expected but signals this is NOT a new "series of hikes" most think stocks like it, bond yields decline or stabilize
If he pauses it will surprise markets. If he has valid explanation like core CPI is declining & expected to fall, + oil prices are temporary/likely to decline post mid-terms, & bond yields believe it(decline or stabilize) stocks could be bid up. If not then a pause/no hike, stocks cld still decline if yields rise on it
**TLDR: This is by far the most tricky FED day in awhile so volatility is coming & NOBODY knows the result!!
