Sep. 13 at 11:40 AM
$AMZN Monday could be a volatile day on news of frontier models all agreeing to slow some AI training runs due to fears of safety/aligment.
Just recall what I shared about the shape of AWS "AI biz">>
Lower Exposure to AI Training IaaS Raw Compute-
-AWS AI is exposed to IaaS raw compute sales for GPU training runs mainly for internal Anthropic and growing for OpenAI use, but compared to Goog/Msft at 80% and neo-clouds near 100% it is lower at ~50%, with the other 50% TaaS inference biz on Bedrock for enterprises unaffected
CAPEX Relief or Shift
-If they reduce or shift some 2027 capex from training new models over to Bedrock inference that is higher margin, and enterprise demand not impacted by any training reductions. Any relief in capex FC for 27' that others also do(nobody loses) goes right back to higher FCF
Of course weak hands will sell first and ask q's later but important to be prepared w/the facts vs. the panic.
