Sep. 7 at 10:44 AM
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$UBER isn’t going to suffer in 2026 or 2027. But it’s time to start preparing for what may be coming.
✍️ Some quick numbers for the US alone:
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$TSLA still isn’t even tickling Uber, but my base case is that it will deploy 15,000–30,000 robotaxis by the end of 2027. Musk talks about 125,000 per year, but we’re a little less optimistic than Elon…
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$AMZN’s Zoox, which is already operating in Las Vegas, still has almost no scale. But Amazon isn’t exactly a mom-and-pop operation. It can manufacture around 5,000 vehicles per year. My base case is that it deploys roughly half of that: 2,500 vehicles.
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$GOOG’s Waymo: 10,000–12,000 vehicles by 2027 and 1.5–2M rides per week.
📊 Across the full year 2027, using these fairly conservative assumptions, around 60–110M rides could move from
$UBER to one of these platforms.
For context, that would represent roughly 2–4% of Uber’s US rides.
That’s why I don’t think the damage will be clearly visible this year or in 2027.
From 2028 onwards, everything will start becoming “obvious.” The real danger arrives when these three giants have a combined fleet of around 200,000 robotaxis.
And watch out if regulation moves faster and Tesla actually delivers on its estimate of 125,000 vehicles produced and operating, because the whole timeline would accelerate.
🚗 I’m only talking about MOBILITY here, assuming none of them decides to compete in DELIVERY—which remains to be seen. Amazon? 👀
Right now,
$TSLA’s results, earnings call comments and robotaxi data matter more to
$UBER than Uber’s own results.
💡 This is MY OPINION and MY ESTIMATE. Everyone should form their own view and make their own projections.
Have a great week, everyone!
