Techdamentals
Oct 14, 4:29 PM
$CVX Crude never appears in the CPI. The finished fuels made from it do.
Core inflation came in at 2.6% this morning, above the 2.5% consensus, with headline at 3.7%.
Tuesday's newsletter and video mapped three ways this print could land:
Case A: headline 3.7%, core 2.5%
Case B: headline 3.85%, core 2.5%
Case C: headline 3.8%, core 2.6%
Case C was flagged as the one to take seriously, because core moving two tenths instead of one means the increase reached the part of the basket that does not reverse.
The print: headline 3.7%, core 2.6%. Core exact, headline a tenth lower. Almost spot on, and the half it got exactly right is the half that mattered.
The full explanation, in plain English:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=le-mFDuzQd8
Written version: https://techdamentals.com/newsletter/why-cpi-and-core-inflation-tell-different-stories?ref=st
Educational, not advice.
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