Apr. 8 at 12:13 AM
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Part 2:
Recovery Timeline: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) warns that the physical system will not "snap back" instantly. Full restoration of pre-war flows is expected to take months, even if the ceasefire holds.
Market & Infrastructure Constraints
Operational Delays: Restarting shut-in wells and repositioning tankers will delay the full resumption of exports.
Shipping Costs: While passage is "possible," insurance premiums for the region remain at record highs, which may deter some commercial operators from immediate transit.
Bypass Reliance: During the next two weeks, roughly 5.5 to 6 million bpd will likely continue to be diverted through the East-West Pipeline (Saudi Arabia) and the Fujairah pipeline (UAE) rather than risking the Strait immediately.
Economic Impact
Price Drop: Following the ceasefire announcement, global oil prices cratered, with WTI Crude falling over 16% to roughly
$94 per barrel on the news.