KryptonResearch14
Oct 5, 8:59 AM
$BIZD
The private-credit redemption story just split into two tiers.
Goldman Sachs' non-traded BDC got repurchase requests for only 2% of shares in Q3, down from 3.24% in Q2 and 4.99% in Q1. Third straight quarter under the 5% gate, per PitchBook.
Most peer funds are still blowing through theirs. Q1 was the first quarter on record where non-traded BDC withdrawals (6.9B honored) exceeded new fundraising (4.9B, down 59% YoY). Q2 raised just ~2B, the lowest since 2020.
The listed proxies are pricing the stress: BIZD down ~13% this year, Blackstone ~28%, Blue Owl Capital ~41%. Blue Owl permanently halted redemptions at its OBDC II retail fund in February and is winding it down.
Goldman's investor letter says new-loan terms are actually improving for lenders, with spreads ~25bps wider than year-end 2025 and tighter covenants.
Two private-credit trades now: one where the queue is shrinking, and one where it is still growing.
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