Jun. 10 at 3:10 PM
Optics supply chain check
Latest earnings calls are telling a very consistent story across the board - demand is still outrunning supply at nearly every major node.
$LITE: effectively sold out, >30% demand not being shipped, capacity locked via LTAs through 2027
$AAOI: scaling hard (100k → 930k units/month by 2027) yet still expects demand > supply into mid-2027
$COHR: bookings into 2028, doubling InP capacity twice in 18 months, calls out industry-wide bottleneck
$CIEN: backlog up to
$7.7B (+
$2.6B in 6 months)
$CSCO: hyperscaler AI orders revised from
$5B →
$9B mid-year
Put it together and the 800G / 1.6T cycle still looks structurally undersupplied (~27–30%).
If CPO slips to 2028, this entire stack effectively becomes the backbone of AI buildout for another 2 years.
Supply isn’t catching up anytime soon - it’s already spoken fo
